Stand by me, train in vain

I prefer to look at the match-by-match gate take rather than the averages. The one off spikes tend to hide the trends.

Firstly, last season the gate takes were higher before the socceroo qualification than after it. It is footballs version of buy the rumour and sell the fact.

Melbourne have a number of advantages. It is a great franchise to own. Lots of Australians from backgrounds with a football culture. The owner Geoff Lord understands risk and return and despite last year's troubles held on with the FFA support. At the moment there does not appear to be any other Victorian competition applying for a franchise.

In my view the analysis is really about sustainability. So for example, the accepted wisdom is that the Roar must attract 20,000 to make money at Lang Park. They have only done this 3 times in two seasons and that was probably supported by FFA and the Qld branch. So they are sustained by the strength of the Qld Lions club and FFA world cup payments.

No wonder the FFA held back the world cup players pay as long as they could.

Syndey is a good size franchise. It is marginally impacted by Central Coast but really should be getting a bigger crowd and this is probably the point that the journalists are trying to get at. That is to answer the question about why the Sydney franchise isn't a stronger brand. It probably shows the strength of Dwight's and really Man U's brand.

The smaller cities are lucky. The FFA rules requiring certain quality stadiums don't impact them so much in terms of cost. That is they can find a 15,000 seat stadium, while the Roar only really has the choice of 50,000 seat lang park.

The clubs complained last year that the gate take dropped when FFA stopped running the TV ads. And there something in this. There is a huge latent football watching public but they are not all going to go to a website and search for games and times. This is why all clubs are looking for the angle that gets them on the news or on the radio - be heard amoung the news noise. If you are not winning this becomes harder and harder - you change coaches, you admit failure, promise more, and then what?

Round 16 state of the gate take...

The top graph shows the difference in crowd size between this year and last season. It focuses on each home game and the plus or minus 10,000 patrons result. So it cuts off Melbourne's booming gate. The second graph is the crowd per home game and show Melbourne running away, and the up and down trends of the other clubs. Melbourne gate has been limited a couple of times by the size of Olypic park.

More than twice as people have bought tickets to Melbourne Victory’s home games as they did last year. Hats off to Geoff Lord for hanging on when others like the Perth owners moved on, the FFA for their support, Ernie Merrick for holding his nerve, Fred for coming, Archie for coming back and Guus Hiddink for not giving Archie game time.

The crowd performance for 2006-7 over 2005-6 is Qld are down (3,371) on the same number of home games, Adelaide are up 7,959 and Romario can claim around 5,000 of this gain, Sydney are down (4,480) and this is despite a reasonable place on the table - the gap is probably financed by higher ticket prices, Newcastle is down (3,578) due to poor early season form, Perth, still without an owner driving a clear brand strategy is down (16,614), NZ is down (8,644) from a low base, Central Coast with plenty of performance behind them last year and home games in hand is up 8,751 on the same number of home games as last year and Melbourne up 93,378. Melbourne is obviously the runaway. And Melbourne shows what can be done with good attacking and winning football. Plus it is a huge market.

Hit me with your rhythm stick, hit me fast hit me quick...

When in doubt blame someone. Frank's 'crap' comment and Andrew's follow-up - how do you explain that to children. Kids understand playing hard. And losing, what are only, games is a part of life's lessons. But to fire off blame at your own team, particularly when they are advertising the annual dinner - who does that?

'Crap' makes a headline. It doesn't explain what the coach did in advance to try to prevent that outcome. I have not seen unconstructive criticism improve an individual’s performance. Anyway, it is the fans that catch the media message, players may or may not. And the message to fans sounded like ‘this isn’t worth watching.’ And a well coached Roar is worth watching. What these comments did is split fans between 'Miron was better' and 'Get a new team Frank.' that is not helpful and will not grow crowds.

The Roar are not the socceroos. There are not a team of equal quality players waiting to take the whole team's place. If the Roar finish outside the top four, the players that come, given the salary cap, will be about the same quality as this year. Inexperienced young players or overseas players that no longer attract salaries they cannot refuse.

Players choose a club through looking to fit in or taking a step up from where they are now to further their careers. We have had the 'we'll definitely improve and make the finals in 2006-7' call to arms. The next call to arms must be based on results.
And people judge employers by the way the employer treats their worst performers.

Wouldn't it be better to look what is going wrong and what worked this year?

Get rhythm when you get the blues get rhythm

The Roar gotta get rhythm. It was a Johnny Cash night. Thursday night. Down to 10,040. At lang park you seep under 15,000 and it only sounds like 500 there. Except for the 20 visitors. Well they sound like 500 too.

Get rhythm. Now we must win 4 out-of-five to make the finals. Frank says it is possible.

You get 20 players in a squad. 15% were sick or injured, including Matt McKay who ate something bad last night and lost a lot of weight. 15% were foreign and sitting in the stands. That's 30% of our squad and 50% of our reputation. Too many players don't seem to be getting much game time. Can't really expect players who have sat out, or sat on the bench, to win the game for you. That's at least another 15%.

It is telling that the Roar got no yellow cards tonight. Usually you'd expect a team losing like that to all have their hands up to get booked.

I still call Australia home...

Interestingly NRL, which is big here in pineapple land, is introducing a youth league soon. This was opposed by the Broncos because it would mean that their young players would miss out on action against older and experienced players. But rubgy league has few foriegn players in OZ because we have the best league by far - Australian players are sought OS.

Our SBS (formerly known as soccer broadcasting) friend Fossie has been pushing this idea for the A-League.

The problem is that the Roar went for a youthful side last year - invested in the likes of Brosque (whose career in Europe was on the bench of a lower league) and Baird. Stuck with them and then they left. Brosque famously to Sydney where he watches from the bench and Butcher plays 'ground them out'. Anyway, Roar admitted they mistook how intense the A-League was ging to be and looked for experience - letting go a batch of young locals - Jonti, Tyler et al.

Looking for experience leaves few local choices who are willing to move. Even Mori doesn't train here - Sasha P's wife didn't want to leave Sydney (but after the recent Sasha v Butcher press could change their mind?). So we got Ante and some foreigners. Some of these foriegners have suffered more than their share of injuries and others are just not up to it. There is always the question why did they come. On the other hand, the A-League - is an arms race limited by salary cap. Frank has promised to fight with more young Australians.

OS buying is really hit and miss - Fred has been star for Melb but another Brazilian sits on the bench and the other is all but forgotten. But then again Melb have shown that holding the core of squad through thin and thin is the key to ultimate success. Plus of course Archie no getting game time with foreign clubs and coming home - same thing happened to Mori years before.

Apparently, (according to the press) the NZ version of the FA discourages NZders from playing with the Knights. So you get a young NZ talent like Brockie sitting on the bench for Sydney and Christie sitting on the bench for Perth.

Real talent, like Nick Ward, and maybe Dave Williams, are going to go OS. You only get so many years to follow your dreams and pay for your lack of other work experience.

African nations have tried to stop their locals being poached. It doesn't work. This is globalisation at play.

Smells like teen spirit

A key thing that is going really well for the A-League this year is teenage players. Nathan Burns, Ben Kennedy and Dario Vidosic - all 18 or 19 - have been the standouts, and have put older and many of the foreign players in the shade. When these sub-20 players come on the field, even if at the 80th, the game picks up pace. They tend to be unpredictable. The older players just can't rely on standard operating procedures to defeat them. And the crowd like that. The games are getting too predictable and the young players bring the chancey edge that means - for good or bad - the ball might get in the net. And crowds like that. It stirs them to life.

Nathan scored the season's best end to end goal so far. I hope Ben is fit soon he had a real testy start and showed real character. And other young players have certainly got their hand up. Ben Griffin (see holding the green bottle in the photo)has had two good games for the Roar and Chris Grossman - after training with the Roar for two years did not disappoint with his first go.

When Roar captain in waiting Matt McKay scored on Saturday - Dario showed how much he understands this entertainment business. He pointed to Matty, then signalled for the crowd to cheer and we did. Then running back to the kick-off he signalled for the crowd to lift, and we did. That sought of youthful exuberance is required in the A-League - not diving, not 'ground them out' football - we want speed, risk and entertainment.

With acknowledgements to Nathan, an aging Australian workforce has served Adelaide for a season and a half, and Melbourne feel it when Muscat isn’t available. But Perth despite their ladder position look like they are growing some very good young players. They probably felt it most to lose the young talent Nick Ward to the English CC league. And the nurturing Ron Smith - who discovered Frank Farina as a teen - could place them well next year. Like Ernie Merrick did for Melbourne last year.

Frank has stated that Roar can expect more young players next year. And the crowds will like that.

... And the word got around...

Twas his swearing mate who wrote it, and verbatim I will quote it:
"Chancy's gone to Queensland, and we don't know where he are."

In my wild erratic fancy visions come to me of Chancy Mori
Sydney's Gone a-driving and Adelaide's "downing Coopers" where will the Western glory go;
As the Rejects are slowly stringing, Chancy rides their singing,
For the Roar fan life has pleasures that the Melbourne townsfolk never know.

And the Roar hath friends to meet him, and their kindly voices greet him, Matt McKay
In the murmur of the breezes and the river and its bars,
And he sees the vision splendid of the sunlit goals extended,
And at night the wond'rous glory of the everlasting stars... Stan was not there... Bobby and Harnwell have no bite

Sorry Banjo

Nothing happened in the first half. Then from 45 to 65 Glory put us under the pump. And held us there around the goal. Again and Again, Liam, Andrew, Seo, Grossman, Simon and Stuey saved us ... .... And Damian ran them single-handed till their sides were white with foam. He followed like a bloodhound on their track, Till they halted cowed and beaten, then he turned their heads for home, Perth... for the word had passed around - 'they're tanked get 'em.' And we turned defence into attack. They burned their 3 subs early but couldn't keep up. Dario and Ante came on for a great debut from Chris Grossman (what has he been doing on the Roar bench for 2 years?) and a back from injury Simon.

Then Damian, blowing up at us not giving him the shot, after shot - have we seen this before?, had a real partner in Ante and it was always on... Matty, Spase, Seo, Ante and King Mori all blasting away. Until, ....
hey its in

We are going to win. We're back. They have no time to waste. Thursday night its Newcastle for our second last home game. Pity we don't have more games in the northern humidity... (blame Robbie Williams) As they shoulder one another in their rush and nervous haste,... With their eager eyes and greedy, and their stunted forms and weedy,
For Roarfolk have time to grow, but they have no time to waste.

Sorry Banjo, just too good to waste...